Korean Researchers Develop Tech That Predicts Kidney Cancer Recurrence

A team of researchers has designed AI software that can forecast the recurrence of kidney cancer. The researchers, who are all from St. Mary’s Seoul Hospital, were led by Department of Urology Prof. Hong Seung-hoo. The research findings were reported in the “JMIR Medical Informatics” journal.

The proposed algorithm can be used to forecast the probability of kidney recurrence five to 10 years after surgeries have been performed. It can predict this through the use of AI machine learning.

In a press release, the group of researchers stated that they expect their software will be used as the foundation for finding ways to improve a kidney cancer patient’s diagnosis given that the disease doesn’t have an established data platform, either globally or locally.

The researchers used the Korea Renal Cell Carcinoma database to create their AI software. They analyzed data from 6,849 cancer patients on the database using the primary statistical method and obtained 31 variables that influence the recurrence of renal cancer.

After this, they chose 10 variables that considerably impacted actual clinical trials then applied these variables to 8 machine learning algorithm types. This helped them confirm that the best machine learning algorithm for use was the Naïve Bayes algorithm, whose performance they optimized by improving the algorithm’s parameters. They found the forecasted value of recurrence to be 0.79 in a decade after surgery and 0.84 in five years.

Hong stated that the researchers were confident that their algorithm could assist clinicians in managing the diagnosis of patients after renal cancer operations. This benefit is in addition to helping create personalized treatment plans for each patient.

Kidney cancer has become widespread in Korea in the recent past. This cancer type is not easy to detect, as there’s only a 10% to 15% chance that its symptoms, which include abdominal masses, bloody stools and pain in the sides, show in an individual.

The disease’s recurrence after an operation typically appears one to two years after operation. However, there have been reports of its recurrence more than a decade after surgery, which is why a follow-up examination for progression or recurrence after an operation is important. This applies to patients who may not be showing any symptoms, as recurrence may not display any symptoms.

The disease’s recurrence rate is especially high if there’s a risk factor for metastasis such as renal vein invasion or lymph node metastasis, or the cancer size is bigger than 7 cm. It should be noted that metastasis primarily occurs in the liver, bones and lungs.

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