According to data released by the CMS last week, the expansion of people enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans has decelerated in 2026 to a degree that dwarfs what has been happening in recent years.
The CMS data reveals that nearly 35.5 million individuals have so far enrolled for MA programs. This marks a paltry 3% growth of membership compared to last year which saw approximately 34.4 million individuals enroll for MA plans by this time of year. The 3% growth is a far cry from previous years that easily saw annual enrollment tick upwards by 10%.
In recent years, the expansion of MA has continued to lose steam as many insurers withdraw from offering MA plans or scale down the number of enrollees they are willing to take. Insurers say their spending on care for policy holders has risen and made the program less economically viable. Insurers also point to regulatory changes that they deem to be unacceptable.
An analysis of the strategies used by MA insurers to scale back their operations and services shows that some made decisions to exit certain markets while others tweaked their policies in order to restrict the eligibility of people that the insurers regarded as unprofitable due to the high costs involved in covering their medical care needs.
UnitedHealthcare, the largest provider of MA health insurance plans, saw its MA enrollment drop by 9% to a little under 9.4 million individuals. Elevance saw its numbers drop by 14%, while CVS also recorded a 3% drop in the number of people enrolling for the MA policies it offers. Together, these large insurers account for close to 17 million enrollees on MA policies around the country.
Among the largest MA insurers, Humana stands out as a firm that saw its enrollment increase significantly, taking the company from having 5.8 million MA enrollees to at least 7 million as per the February data. This puts Humana on course to surpass UnitedHealth as the leading MA policy provider in the U.S.
Given that enrollment is still ongoing under a plan that lets enrollees change plans until this window closes when March ends, the numbers enrolled by larger and smaller MA plan providers are likely to change. More changes could come next year in case the federal government sticks to its plan to keep MA payment rates to insurers unchanged.
MA policy providers like Astiva Health are likely to study the evolving landscape and come up with measures to enable them to continue addressing the needs of the underserved communities they focus on.
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